It was two months in the past that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach scolded him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his displays were an indicator or the source of the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. As Rogers swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Additionally, they've rarely been wholly dominant this season, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, in only two games has the team registered an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they appear curiously susceptible – however right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder by the end of the year would be leading a title charge while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
